Quantification of the pluriannual dynamics of grapevine growth responses to nitrogen supply using a Bayesian approach

The effect of nitrogen (N) nutrition on grapevine carbon (C) dynamics has been well studied at the annual scale, but poorly addressed at a pluriannual timescale. The aim of this study was to quantify, in an integrated conceptual framework, the effect of N nutrition on potted grapevine growth and storage over 2 consecutive years. The consequences of using destructive measurements were investigated using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The rate and duration of leaf growth were both positively impacted by the chlorophyll content of the leaves, but they were negatively impacted by the initial carbohydrate measurements, raising a distortion in the estimation of initial reserves. The C production per unit of global radiation depended on the leaf area dynamics. The allocation of dry matter mainly relied on the phenological stage. The present study highlights the importance of using appropriate statistical methods to overcome uncertainties due to destructive measurements. The genericity of the statistical approach presented may encourage its implementation in other agronomy studies. Based on our results, a simple conceptual framework of grapevine pluriannual growth under various N supplies was built. This provides a relevant basis for a future model of C and N balance and responses to N fertilization in grapevine.