Molecular evolution of Zika virus as it crossed the Pacific to the Americas

Zika virus was previously considered to cause only a benign infection in humans. Studies of recent outbreaks of Zika virus in the Pacific, South America, Mexico and the Caribbean have associated the virus with severe neuropathology. Viral evolution may be one factor contributing to an apparent change in Zika disease as it spread from Southeast Asia across the Pacific to the Americas. To address this possibility, we have employed computational tools to compare the phylogeny, geography, immunology and RNA structure of Zika virus isolates from Africa, Asia, the Pacific and the Americas. In doing so, we compare and contrast methods and results for tree search and rooting of Zika virus phylogenies. In some phylogenetic analyses we find support for the hypothesis that there is a deep common ancestor between African and Asian clades (the "Asia/Africa" hypothesis). In other phylogenetic analyses, we find that Asian lineages are descendent from African lineages (the "out of Africa" hypothesis). In addition, we identify and evaluate key mutations in viral envelope protein coding and untranslated terminal RNA regions. We find stepwise mutations that have altered both immunological motif sets and regulatory sequence elements. Both of these sets of changes distinguish viruses found in Africa from those in the emergent Asia-Pacific-Americas lineage. These findings support the working hypothesis that mutations acquired by Zika virus in the Pacific and Americas contribute to changes in pathology. These results can inform experiments required to elucidate the role of viral genetic evolution in changes in neuropathology, including microcephaly and other neurological and skeletomuscular issues in infants, and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults.