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Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations
Thomas Slater1, Andrew Shepherd2, Malcolm McMillan3
1Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. t.slater1@leeds.ac.uk.
Nature Communications
|November 2, 2021
Summary
Greenland Ice Sheet runoff has increased and become more variable, impacting sea levels and ocean circulation. New satellite data provides direct measurements, improving climate models and projections.
Area of Science:
- Glaciology
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
Background:
- Greenland Ice Sheet runoff significantly impacts global sea level, ocean circulation, and marine ecosystems.
- Previous runoff estimates relied on climate models, with satellite data limited to melting extent.
- Ice sheet mass imbalance is increasingly dominated by surface runoff.
Purpose of the Study:
- To directly measure Greenland's runoff variability using satellite altimetry.
- To assess changes in runoff over recent decades and compare with climate model simulations.
- To improve the accuracy of climate models and their projections of future sea-level rise.
Main Methods:
- Utilized CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry data from 2011-2020.
- Measured seasonal changes in the ice sheet's surface elevation to infer runoff.
- Adjusted for ice flow divergence to calculate average annual runoff.
Main Results:
- Greenland's ablation zone showed significant thinning in summer and thickening in winter.
- Estimated average annual runoff was 357 ± 58 Gt/yr, closely matching climate model results.
- Runoff between 2011-2020 was 21% higher and 60% more variable year-to-year compared to prior decades.
Conclusions:
- Direct satellite measurements confirm increased and more variable runoff from Greenland.
- Observed variability is linked to atmospheric circulation fluctuations and is not fully captured by current climate models.
- This satellite record will enhance climate model refinement and improve sea-level rise projections.
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