[Epidemic Characteristics of the Novel Coronavirus Delta Variant in Guangzhou and Grid Crowd Management Based on...

Abstract： Objective To analyze the first epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus Delta variant in China based on public security forensic perspective, investigate its transmission characteristics, contributing factors, and epidemiologic research experience, and provide a reference for the prevention and control of the epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus variant. Methods Based on the information that public security forensic experts obtained from front-line epidemiologic research, the gender, age, place of residence, transmission route and infectivity of the coronavirus disease 2019 （COVID-19） confirmed cases, asymptomatic infected persons and their close contacts in Guangzhou caused by the novel coronavirus Delta variant were analyzed. The basic reproduction number （R₀） during this epidemic in Guangzhou was calculated. Results Among the 153 cases infected with novel coronavirus Delta variant in the epidemic, 63 cases were male and 90 cases were female, their age ranging from 1 to 92 years, with a median age of 49 years. The main route of transmission was close contact, including dining together, co-living, and close contact in the same residential building. There were 31 cases of family clusters, 25 of which were in Liwan District. The epidemic lasted from May 26 to May 29, and the R₀ remained above 4.0. After May 30, R₀ began to decline and remained below 1.0 from June 7. Conclusion The novel coronavirus Delta variant is highly infectious, the crowd is generally susceptible to infection and family cluster cases are easy to occur. So, it is necessary to precisely prevent and control this strain. Public security forensic experts have both medical literacy and criminal investigation capabilities, they can play a more professional role in epidemic prevention and control.