Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide

Area of Science:

• Socio-economic impacts of pandemics
• Political science and conflict studies

Background:

• The SARS CoV-2 pandemic prompted unprecedented government policy responses globally.
• Understanding the societal impacts of these policies, particularly on public assembly and conflict, is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between government restrictions during the SARS CoV-2 pandemic and conflict events.
• To analyze the differential effects of policies on demonstrations versus organized violent events.

Main Methods:

• Utilized daily data on conflict events and government policy responses to limit SARS CoV-2 spread.
• Employed an event study framework with staggered policy implementation across countries.

Main Results:

• Nation-wide shutdowns temporarily reduced public demonstrations due to increased participation costs.
• Violent events involving organized armed groups did not decrease; they slightly increased on average.
• The rise in violent events was more pronounced in poorer, polarized, and authoritarian countries.

Conclusions:

• Pandemic restrictions have complex and varied effects on different forms of public unrest.
• While demonstrations may be suppressed, underlying conditions can foster increases in organized violence, particularly in vulnerable nations.