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Disaster Risk Planning With Fuzzy Goal Programming.

Terry R Rakes1, Jason K Deane1, Loren P Rees1

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a fuzzy goal programming model to help communities plan for disaster mitigation and recovery. It accounts for best-case, most-likely, and worst-case scenarios, enhancing resilience against unexpected events.

Keywords:
Black swandisaster budgetingfuzzy sets

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Area of Science:

  • Disaster Management
  • Operations Research
  • Risk Analysis

Background:

  • Disaster planning is challenged by uncertainty in event timing and severity.
  • Relying on expected values leaves communities vulnerable to extreme and unpredictable events.
  • Current planning often fails to address the full spectrum of potential disaster impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a flexible disaster modeling approach for community planning.
  • To enable strategic planning across a range of potential disaster scenarios.
  • To provide stakeholders with tools for robust mitigation and recovery strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Modeling disaster impacts using best-case, most-likely, and worst-case damage estimates.
  • Implementing a fuzzy goal programming model to incorporate these estimates.
  • Utilizing adjustable goal weights for scenario-based strategic planning.

Main Results:

  • The fuzzy goal programming model effectively integrates diverse damage estimates.
  • Planners can strategize for a spectrum of disaster events by adjusting goal weights.
  • The approach provides a framework for adaptive and resilient community planning.

Conclusions:

  • This research offers a novel approach to disaster planning under uncertainty.
  • The model empowers communities to prepare for a wider range of potential disaster outcomes.
  • It facilitates more effective long-term mitigation and recovery planning.