Measured and predicted freeze-thaw days frequencies in climate change conditions in central Poland

The rate of progression of geomorphological phenomena is greatly influenced by freeze-thaw processes. In the face of air temperature increasing over the past few decades, a question of the future impact of these processes arises, notably in the temperate and cold climate zones. Using the mean, maximum and minimum daily air temperature data in the period 1951-2018 obtained from three weather stations located in the vicinity of Jeziorsko reservoir (central Poland), we have determined the mathematical correlation, described with a polynomial function, between the mean monthly air temperature and the monthly number of freeze-thaw days (FTD). A freeze-thaw day is a day when the maximum air temperature is above 0 °C while the minimum air temperature equals or is below this threshold. The number of FTDs within the study area averaged 64-71 and demonstrated a downward trend of 2-4 FTDs/10 years. The study period (1951-2018), includes a clearly marked distinct sub-period (1991-2018), when the reservoir was in operation, which experienced 58-68 FTDs. Considering the assumed rise in temperature, one should expect a further, though slightly slower, decline in the future number of FTDs. Depending on the accepted model of the temperature increase, which for the area of Poland (Central Europe) in the perspective of 30 years oscillates between +1.1 to +1.3 °C, the number of FTDs within the study area is expected to decline by -4.5 to -5.3 FTD, i.e. 6-7% and 5.4-5.5 FTD i.e. 8-9% respectively.