30-Year Cardiovascular Disease in Type 1 Diabetes: Risk and Risk Factors Differ by Long-term Patterns of Glycemic...

We hypothesized that there is heterogeneity in long-term patterns of glycemic control with respect to cardiovascular disease (CVD) development in type 1 diabetes and that risk factors for CVD differ by glycemic control pattern. Thus, we estimated associations between data-derived latent HbA1c trajectories and 30-year CVD risk in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) study of childhood-onset (<17 years old) type 1 diabetes.

Participants (n = 536 with two or more HbA1c measurements [median 6] and CVD-free at baseline; mean age 27 and diabetes duration 18 years) were followed from 1986 to 1988 to 2016 to 2018 to ascertain CVD incidence (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization or blockage ≥50%, ischemic electrocardiogram, or angina). Latent HbA1c trajectories and their association with time-to-CVD incidence were simultaneously assessed using joint latent class mixed models.

Two HbA1c trajectories with respect to differential CVD risk were identified: low (HbA1c ∼8% [64 mmol/mol] and improving over follow-up, 76% of cohort) and high (HbA1c ∼10% [86 mmol/mol] and stable, 24%). Overall, 30-year CVD incidence was 47.4% (n = 253); major adverse cardiovascular event incidence was 31.0% (n = 176). High HbA1c was associated with threefold increased CVD risk versus low HbA1c. Both groups had similar age and diabetes duration. Non-HDL cholesterol and estimated glomerular filtration rate were associated with CVD risk only in low HbA1c; albumin excretion rate was associated with CVD risk only in high HbA1c.

These risk factor differences suggest that pathways to CVD may differ by glycemic control, potentially resulting in important implications for prognosis in type 1 diabetes.