Projected US Urology Workforce per Capita, 2020-2060

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Workforce Analysis
• Urology Workforce Projections
• Population Demographics

Background:

• The urology workforce is projected to face a worsening shortage.
• Existing projections extend to 2035, highlighting a need for longer-term forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the urology workforce size and demographics per capita up to 2060.
• To anticipate the timing and severity of the impending urology workforce shortage.

Main Methods:

• Population-based cross-sectional study utilizing 2019 American Urological Association (AUA) Annual Census data.
• Incorporated Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) data (2007-2018) and US Census projections.
• Employed two stock and flow models (continued growth and stagnant growth) for workforce projection.

Main Results:

• In 2019, there were 13,044 practicing urologists, with a ratio of 3.99 per 100,000 persons.
• Under a continued growth model, the lowest urologist-per-capita ratio is projected for 2030 (3.3/100,000), with recovery by 2050.
• The ratio of urologists per 100,000 persons aged 65+ is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2020 to 15.8 in 2035, never recovering to baseline by 2060.

Conclusions:

• Both projected models indicate an exaggerated shortage of urologists, particularly for the aging population.
• Urgent need for structural changes and advocacy to optimize the existing urology workforce.
• The findings underscore the critical nature of the urology workforce shortage and the necessity for proactive interventions.