Decomposition analysis of the decoupling and driving factors of municipal solid waste: Taking China as an example

As one type of debt 'borrowed' from nature, municipal solid waste (MSW) can be influenced by financing debt. Taking China as an example, an improved Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model, together with the Tapio decoupling model, is developed to analyze the impact of private debt on MSW generation and the relationship between MSW and economic growth. The results show that the debt-income ratio promotes MSW generation and the output efficiency of debt inhibits MSW generation. Second, the linkage relationship between GDP growth and MSW shows three states: strong decoupling, expansion coupling and weak decoupling. The MSW generation per unit of GDP and the output efficiency of debt are the main contributors to the change of decoupling state. Third, implementing a MSW classification measure can greatly reduce the quantity of MSW removed and transported and improve the decoupling state. By 2035, deleveraging scenario and economic growth slowdown scenario can reduce MSW removal and transportation quantities by 765 and 1080 million tons, respectively. It is worth noting that negative population growth worsens decoupling while curbing MSW. The results provide a new perspective for the realization of MSW reduction and some sound policies are formulated to improve MSW management.