A Meta-Analysis of Growth Differentiation Factor-15 and Prognosis in Chronic Heart Failure

Background: Previous studies had reported increased circulating concentrations of growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) in chronic heart failure (CHF), suggesting the potential prognostic significance of GDF-15 in this setting. To verify the relationship between the circulating GDF-15 levels and prognosis of CHF patients, we conducted an updated evidence-based meta-analysis. Methods: A comprehensive literature retrieval of PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library was performed to collect the qualified studies that analyzed the prognostic value of GDF-15 in CHF from the inception of these online databases to September 25, 2021. The hazard ratio (HR) calculated for logGDF-15 of all-cause death and the related 95% confidence interval (CI) in multivariate analysis were used to measure the effect size. Additionally, subgroup analyses stratified by characteristics of the study participants were conducted for incremental evidence of GDF-15 in CHF with different clinical status. Results: A total of ten eligible studies involving 6,244 CHF patients were finally taken into the quantitative analysis. Results in the random-effects model indicated that there was an increased risk of 6% in all-cause mortality with a per 1LnU increase in baseline GDF-15 concentration (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.03-1.10, P < 0.001). In stratified analyses, the association of GDF-15 with risk of all-cause mortality was found among chronic ischemic HF patients (HR:1.75, 95%CI: 1.24-2.48, P = 0.002), while the association was not found among chronic nonischemic HF patients (HR:1.01, 95%CI: 1.00-1.02, P = 0.219). Conclusion: The elevated GDF-15 is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in CHF, especially, among CHF patients with ischemic etiology. The circulating GDF-15 might be a prognostic indicator in CHF patients. Registration Number: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO; CRD42020210796.