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Related Experiment Video

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Establishment of a Robust and Reproducible Model of Radiation-Induced Skin and Muscle Fibrosis

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Generalized radiation model for human migration.

Christian Alis¹, Erika Fille Legara², Christopher Monterola²

¹Analytics, Computing and Complex Systems Laboratory (ACCeSs@AIM), Asian Institute of Management, 123 Paseo De Roxas, Makati City, 1229, Philippines. calis@aim.edu.

Scientific Reports

|November 23, 2021

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Predicting human migration is improved by a new model that includes amenities like offices and schools, not just population. This generalized radiation model offers better accuracy for migration studies.

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Area of Science:

Urban Studies
Demography
Computational Social Science

Background:

Human migration prediction is challenging, with current models like the radiation model relying heavily on population as a proxy for economic opportunity.
This approach may be insufficient, particularly in developing nations, and overlooks non-economic drivers such as quality of life.

Purpose of the Study:

To enhance the radiation model for human migration by incorporating amenities as a factor alongside population.
To assess the performance of this generalized radiation model against the traditional radiation model using real-world census data.

Main Methods:

The study extends the established radiation model by adding the count of amenities (e.g., offices, schools, leisure facilities) as a key feature.
The generalized model's predictive accuracy was evaluated against the standard radiation model using census data spanning five years.

Main Results:

The generalized radiation model demonstrated a significant improvement, achieving up to a 10.3% relative reduction in mean absolute percentage error compared to the standard radiation model.
Intriguingly, the top-performing model excluded population data, suggesting that amenity information sufficiently captures population-related migration drivers.

Conclusions:

The generalized radiation model offers a more accurate approach to predicting human migration patterns by incorporating amenities.
This model provides valuable insights into the influence of amenities on migration decisions and offers a method for feature importance analysis.