Study on Horizon Scanning with a Focus on the Development of AI-Based Medical Products: Citation Network Analysis

Horizon scanning for innovative technologies that might be applied to medical products and requires new assessment approaches to prepare regulators, allowing earlier access to the product for patients and an improved benefit/risk ratio. The purpose of this study is to confirm that citation network analysis and text mining for bibliographic information analysis can be used for horizon scanning of the rapidly developing field of AI-based medical technologies and extract the latest research trend information from the field. We classified 119,553 publications obtained from SCI constructed with the keywords "conventional," "machine-learning," or "deep-learning" and grouped them into 36 clusters, which demonstrated the academic landscape of AI applications. We also confirmed that one or two close clusters included the key articles on AI-based medical image analysis, suggesting that clusters specific to the technology were appropriately formed. Significant research progress could be detected as a quick increase in constituent papers and the number of citations of hub papers in the cluster. Then we tracked recent research trends by re-analyzing "young" clusters based on the average publication year of the constituent papers of each cluster. The latest topics in AI-based medical technologies include electrocardiograms and electroencephalograms (ECG/EEG), human activity recognition, natural language processing of clinical records, and drug discovery. We could detect rapid increase in research activity of AI-based ECG/EEG a few years prior to the issuance of the draft guidance by US-FDA. Our study showed that a citation network analysis and text mining of scientific papers can be a useful objective tool for horizon scanning of rapidly developing AI-based medical technologies.