Modeling SARS-CoV-2 propagation using rat coronavirus-associated shedding and transmission

At present, global immunity to SARS-CoV-2 resides within a heterogeneous combination of susceptible, naturally infected and vaccinated individuals. The extent to which viral shedding and transmission occurs on re-exposure to SARS-CoV-2 is an important determinant of the rate at which COVID-19 achieves endemic stability. We used Sialodacryoadenitis Virus (SDAV) in rats to model the extent to which immune protection afforded by prior natural infection via high risk (inoculation; direct contact) or low risk (fomite) exposure, or by vaccination, influenced viral shedding and transmission on re-exposure. On initial infection, we confirmed that amount, duration and consistency of viral shedding, and seroconversion rates were correlated with exposure risk. Animals were reinfected after 3.7-5.5 months using the same exposure paradigm. 59% of seropositive animals shed virus, although at lower amounts. Previously exposed seropositive reinfected animals were able to transmit virus to 25% of naive recipient rats after 24-hour exposure by direct contact. Rats vaccinated intranasally with a related virus (Parker's Rat Coronavirus) were able to transmit SDAV to only 4.7% of naive animals after a 7-day direct contact exposure, despite comparable viral shedding. Cycle threshold values associated with transmission in both groups ranged from 29-36 cycles. Observed shedding was not a prerequisite for transmission. Results indicate that low-level shedding in both naturally infected and vaccinated seropositive animals can propagate infection in susceptible individuals. Extrapolated to COVID-19, our results suggest that continued propagation of SARS-CoV-2 by seropositive previously infected or vaccinated individuals is possible.