[Spatio-temporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis and influencing factors in Beijing, 2008-2018]

Objective: To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and influencing factors in Beijing from 2008 to 2018. Methods: The incidence data of pulmonary TB in Beijing from 2008 to 2018 were from Tuberculosis Information Management System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary TB incidence. Getis's G^* statistic was applied to analyze the spatial clustering of pulmonary TB incidence at street/township scale. Bayesian spatiotemporal model was applied to analyze factors affecting its spatiotemporal distribution, including urbanization rate, GDP per capita, number of hospital beds per thousand population, permanent migrant population and population density. Results: The reported pulmonary TB incidence showed a downward trend in the past 11 years in Beijing, from 58.64/100 000 to 30.43/100 000. The incidences were higher in Tongzhou, Changping and other newly developed urban districts, with the hot spots concentrated in local areas of these districts. The incidences of pulmonary TB were lower in Dongcheng, Xicheng and other old urban districts-with the cold spots also concentrated in these area. The risk for the incidence of pulmonary TB was associated with the urbanization rate and the permanent migrant population. For every 1% increase in the urbanization rate, the relative risk of pulmonary TB would increase by 1%. For every 10 000 person increase of permanent migrant population, the relative risk of pulmonary TB would increase by 0.6%. Conclusions: In Beijing, the current pulmonary TB prevention and control needs to be focused on the newly developed urban areas. Due to the accelerated process of urbanization, it is necessary to strengthen TB prevention and control in permanent migrant population to reduce the incidence of TB in Beijing.