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Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations.

Tanja Amerstorfer1, Jürgen Hinterreiter1,2, Martin A Reiss1,3

  • 1Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria.

Space Weather : the International Journal of Research & Applications
|December 2, 2021
PubMed
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The Need for Near-Earth Multi-Spacecraft Heliospheric Measurements and an Explorer Mission to Investigate Interplanetary Structures and Transients in the Near-Earth Heliosphere.

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CME-HSS Interaction and Characteristics Tracked from Sun to Earth.

Solar physics·2020

This study introduces ELEvoHI, a new tool using STEREO heliospheric imager data to predict coronal mass ejection arrival times. The model achieved a mean absolute error of 6.2-9.9 hours, improving space weather forecasting.

Area of Science:

  • Space Physics
  • Solar Physics
  • Heliophysics

Background:

  • Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) pose significant space weather risks.
  • Accurate CME arrival time prediction is crucial for mitigating these risks.
  • Current prediction methods often rely solely on coronagraph data, limiting their observational scope.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the effectiveness of the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) for CME arrival time prediction.
  • To leverage wide-angle heliospheric imager (HI) data for improved CME propagation modeling.
  • To assess ELEvoHI's performance using hindcasts of well-defined CMEs.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized STEREO heliospheric imager (HI) observations to track CME evolution and propagation from near the Sun to beyond 1 AU.
Keywords:
coronal mass ejectionsensemble modelingheliospheric imagingspace weather prediction

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  • Employed the ELEvoHI model, which assumes an elliptical CME frontal shape and incorporates drag based on ambient solar wind speed.
  • Performed ensemble simulations by adjusting CME frontal shapes within observational constraints and conducted hindcasts for 15 isolated CMEs.

    • Main Results:

    • Achieved a mean absolute error ranging from 6.2 ± 7.9 hours to 9.9 ± 13 hours, depending on the model setup.
    • Demonstrated the capability of HI data to provide a more comprehensive view of CME propagation compared to coronagraphs alone.
    • Validated the model's performance for CMEs occurring when STEREO was near the L4/5 Lagrange points.

    Conclusions:

    • ELEvoHI shows promise for enhancing CME arrival time predictions by incorporating HI data.
    • The model is adaptable for future space weather missions with HIs at L5 or L1.
    • Near-real-time data from STEREO-A can be used for CME arrival predictions for the next ~7 years.