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Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations
Tanja Amerstorfer1, Jürgen Hinterreiter1,2, Martin A Reiss1,3
1Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria.
Space Weather : the International Journal of Research & Applications
|December 2, 2021
Summary
This study introduces ELEvoHI, a new tool using STEREO heliospheric imager data to predict coronal mass ejection arrival times. The model achieved a mean absolute error of 6.2-9.9 hours, improving space weather forecasting.
Area of Science:
- Space Physics
- Solar Physics
- Heliophysics
Background:
- Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) pose significant space weather risks.
- Accurate CME arrival time prediction is crucial for mitigating these risks.
- Current prediction methods often rely solely on coronagraph data, limiting their observational scope.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) for CME arrival time prediction.
- To leverage wide-angle heliospheric imager (HI) data for improved CME propagation modeling.
- To assess ELEvoHI's performance using hindcasts of well-defined CMEs.
Main Methods:
- Utilized STEREO heliospheric imager (HI) observations to track CME evolution and propagation from near the Sun to beyond 1 AU.
- Employed the ELEvoHI model, which assumes an elliptical CME frontal shape and incorporates drag based on ambient solar wind speed.
- Performed ensemble simulations by adjusting CME frontal shapes within observational constraints and conducted hindcasts for 15 isolated CMEs.
Main Results:
- Achieved a mean absolute error ranging from 6.2 ± 7.9 hours to 9.9 ± 13 hours, depending on the model setup.
- Demonstrated the capability of HI data to provide a more comprehensive view of CME propagation compared to coronagraphs alone.
- Validated the model's performance for CMEs occurring when STEREO was near the L4/5 Lagrange points.
Conclusions:
- ELEvoHI shows promise for enhancing CME arrival time predictions by incorporating HI data.
- The model is adaptable for future space weather missions with HIs at L5 or L1.
- Near-real-time data from STEREO-A can be used for CME arrival predictions for the next ~7 years.
