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Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
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The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
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Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments.

Luke J Harrington1, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner2,3, Friederike E L Otto4

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Climate change assessments must account for uncertainty. This study uses extreme heat to show high risks emerge above 1.5-2°C warming, highlighting the need for mitigation.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Risk Assessment
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Climate change impact assessments often aggregate diverse risks.
  • Incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for robust assessments.
  • The 'Reasons for Concern' (RFC) framework is a common tool for evaluating climate risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a methodology for transparently assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts.
  • To apply this methodology to extreme heat risks within the RFC framework.
  • To quantitatively differentiate various dimensions of uncertainty, including vulnerability and exposure.

Main Methods:

  • Proposing a novel methodology for uncertainty assessment in climate impact studies.
  • Utilizing extreme heat as a case study for quantitative analysis.
  • Discriminating between different sources of uncertainty, such as future vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards.

Main Results:

  • High risks from extreme heat materialize at 1.5-2°C of global warming.
  • Very high risks are projected between 2-3.5°C of warming.
  • Risk emergence is accelerated if global assessments use national risk thresholds.

Conclusions:

  • Transparently assessing uncertainty is vital for understanding climate change impacts.
  • Stringent climate change mitigation is necessary to limit future extreme heat risks.
  • The methodology provides a framework for evaluating other climate perils.