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Updated: Oct 10, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
Luke J Harrington1, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner2,3, Friederike E L Otto4
1New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand. luke.harrington@vuw.ac.nz.
Abstract:
High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the 'Reasons for Concern' framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5-2 °C and very high risks between 2-3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.
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