Historic redlining, structural racism, and firearm violence: A structural equation modeling approach

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Urban Planning
• Criminology

Background:

• Firearm homicides disproportionately impact Black communities.
• Historical redlining, a discriminatory housing practice, is associated with current firearm violence rates.
• The interplay between redlining, socioeconomic factors, and firearm violence requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the mediating pathways through which 1930s redlining practices influence contemporary firearm violence in Boston.
• To quantify the direct and indirect effects of historical redlining designations on firearm incident rates.

Main Methods:

• Generalized structural equation modeling and negative binomial regression were employed.
• Principle component analysis reduced socioeconomic and environmental data into four mediating variables.
• Direct, indirect, and total effects of redlining designations on firearm violence were calculated.

Main Results:

• Red and Yellow historically redlined areas showed significantly higher firearm incident rates compared to Green areas.
• Poverty and poor educational attainment mediated 20% of the association between Red designations and firearm violence.
• Poverty, poor educational attainment, and Black population share mediated 16% and 13% of the association between Yellow designations and firearm violence, respectively.

Conclusions:

• Redlining contributes to firearm violence through neighborhood environmental changes, including reduced homeownership, increased poverty, and segregation of Black communities.
• Mediating factors such as poverty, educational attainment, and racial segregation present targets for policy interventions.
• Addressing the legacy of redlining is crucial for mitigating urban firearm violence.