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Published on: November 10, 2023
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COVID-19 impact on commodity futures volatilities
1School of Business and Research Academy of Belt & Road, Ningbo University, China.
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic increased long-term volatility in major commodity futures markets. Daily infection rates had varied impacts on short-term volatility, offering insights for risk management and trading.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Finance
- Econometrics
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted global supply chains, impacting economic activity and financial markets.
- Commodity futures markets are sensitive to supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the long-run and short-term volatilities of major commodity futures.
- To extend existing ARMA-GARCH models for analyzing pandemic-related market volatility.
Main Methods:
- Utilized extended ARMA-GARCH models to analyze volatility patterns.
- Examined data from four major commodity futures markets.
Main Results:
- The pandemic demonstrably enhanced long-run volatilities across all analyzed commodity futures.
- The daily speed of COVID-19 infections exhibited mixed effects on short-term (instantaneous) volatilities.
Conclusions:
- The study provides valuable insights for global supply chain risk management.
- Findings are applicable to commodity options trading and regulatory oversight of inflation risk.
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