Public responses to COVID-19 case disclosure and their spatial implications

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Urban Studies
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Public health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, necessitate understanding behavioral responses.
• Disclosed information on disease outbreaks can influence public behavior, impacting mobility and economic activity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze how public mobility and retail spending change in response to disclosed COVID-19 case locations.
• To investigate the spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects of these behavioral changes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized daily cell phone mobility and credit card transaction data from Seoul, South Korea (Feb-May 2019/2020).
• Employed an empirical approach analyzing year-over-year percentage changes in mobility and consumption.
• Examined spatial variations based on population density, land-use diversity, and retail agglomeration.

Main Results:

• An additional COVID-19 case in the preceding 14 days reduced nonresident inflow by 0.40% and retail spending by 0.65%.
• Neighborhoods with higher population density showed greater resilience; those with higher land-use diversity and retail concentration experienced larger demand shocks.
• A significant spatial spillover effect was observed: cases in adjacent areas reduced inflow by 0.06% and retail spending by 0.09%.

Conclusions:

• COVID-19 case information significantly impacts public mobility and retail spending, with effects varying spatially.
• Population density, land-use diversity, and retail agglomeration are key factors influencing neighborhood resilience and vulnerability.
• Disclosed COVID-19 cases create spatial spillovers, affecting adjacent areas' economic activity and mobility patterns.