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An Observational Constraint on Aviation-Induced Cirrus From the COVID-19-Induced Flight Disruption
Ruth A R Digby1, Nathan P Gillett2, Adam H Monahan1
1School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria Victoria BC Canada.
Geophysical Research Letters
|December 20, 2021
Summary
Global aviation reductions during the pandemic did not measurably impact cirrus clouds. This suggests aviation-induced cirrus (AIC) warming effects may be less significant than previously modeled.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Science
- Aviation Impacts
Background:
- Aviation-induced cirrus (AIC) is a significant contributor to aviation's radiative forcing.
- Previous assessments of AIC's radiative impact relied heavily on simulations.
- The COVID-19 pandemic offered a unique, large-scale reduction in aviation for study.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the real-world impact of reduced aviation on cirrus cloud formation.
- To assess the radiative forcing of aviation-induced cirrus (AIC) using observational data.
- To evaluate the accuracy of previous model-based estimates of AIC.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing satellite observations of cirrus cloud cover.
- Analyzing data during the significant global aviation reduction in spring 2020.
- Comparing observed cirrus changes with modeled expectations.
Main Results:
- No detectable global response in cirrus cloud cover was observed following the dramatic 2020 aviation decrease.
- Satellite data did not support previous model-based overestimations of AIC.
- No significant changes in diurnal surface air temperature range were detected.
Conclusions:
- Observed data suggest that the climate warming effect of aviation-induced cirrus may be lower than previously estimated.
- Current climate models may overestimate the radiative impact of AIC.
- Further research is needed to refine understanding of aviation's complex climate interactions.
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