COVID-19, mathematics education, and the evaluation of expert knowledge

Maturity and citizenship in a democracy require that laypersons are able to critically evaluate experts' use of mathematics. Learning to critically reflect on the use of mathematics, including the acquisition of the mathematical knowledge and skills required to that end, has been repeatedly postulated as an indispensable goal of compulsory education in mathematics. However, it remained unclear in how far such reflection is possible, even for the well-educated layperson in mathematics. We use different discussions in German mass media on the pandemic policy in the SARS-CoV-2 crisis in 2020 as examples with far-reaching individual and social consequences. The selected discussions build heavily on mathematical concepts such as mortality rates, casualty numbers, reproduction numbers, and exponential growth. We identify the concepts and discuss how far they can be understood by laypersons. On the one hand, we found that some mathematical models are inappropriate, which can also be determined by laypersons. On the other hand, we found uses of mathematics where ideal concepts are intermingled with complex statistical concepts. While only the ideal concepts can be understood by laypersons, only the statistical concepts lead to actual data. The identification of both types of concepts leads to a situation where the use of mathematics evades social control and opens spaces for misconceptions and manipulation. We conclude that the evaluation of experts' use of mathematics by laypersons is not possible in all relevant cases, and we discuss possible implications of this result.