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Correspondence Bias

Correspondence Bias

Correspondence bias, also referred to as the fundamental attribution error, describes the tendency to attribute another person’s behavior to internal characteristics rather than situational influences. This cognitive bias leads individuals to overlook external factors that may be influencing actions, thereby fostering potentially inaccurate assessments of others’ intentions and dispositions.Empirical Evidence for Correspondence BiasResearch has consistently demonstrated the...

Archival Research

Archival Research

Some researchers gain access to large amounts of data without interacting with a single research participant. Instead, they use existing records to answer various research questions. This type of research approach is known as archival research. Archival research relies on looking at past records or data sets to look for interesting patterns or relationships. For example, a researcher might access the academic records of all individuals who enrolled in college within the past ten years and...

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Surveys

Surveys

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Cause and Effect

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Bias

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Bias refers to any tendency that prevents a question from being considered unprejudiced. In research, bias occurs when one outcome or answer is selected or encouraged over others in sampling or testing. Bias can occur during any research phase, including study design, data collection, analysis, and publication.
In statistics, a sampling bias is created when a sample is collected from a population, and some members of the population are not as likely to be chosen as others (remember, each member...

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How did absentee voting affect the 2020 U.S. election?

Jesse Yoder¹, Cassandra Handan-Nader¹, Andrew Myers²

¹Department of Political Science, Stanford University Stanford, CA, USA.

Science Advances

|December 22, 2021

Summary

Vote-by-mail in the 2020 election did not significantly increase turnout or benefit Democrats. Causal analysis suggests voter interest, not absentee voting, was the primary driver of participation across all voting methods.

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Area of Science:

Political Science
Public Policy
Data Science

Background:

The 2020 U.S. election experienced record turnout and a surge in absentee voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
While Democrats voted by mail at higher rates, the electoral impact of this shift remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

To causally analyze the impact of absentee vote-by-mail on voter turnout and party advantage during the COVID-19 pandemic.
To determine if increased absentee voting influenced the 2020 election outcomes.

Main Methods:

Utilized microdata from millions of individual voters and aggregated turnout data from all 50 states.
Conducted causal analysis focusing on natural experiments in Texas and Indiana, comparing age cohorts eligible for no-excuse absentee voting.

Main Results:

No-excuse absentee voting eligibility for 65-year-olds did not substantially increase their turnout compared to 64-year-olds.
Absentee voting did not significantly increase Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout.
Voter interest emerged as a more significant factor in driving turnout across all voting modes.

Conclusions:

The increase in absentee voting during the pandemic did not demonstrably increase overall turnout or provide a partisan advantage to Democrats.
Voter interest and engagement were more critical determinants of electoral participation than the method of voting.