Association of Incarceration With Mortality by Race From a National Longitudinal Cohort Study

The association between incarceration and long-term mortality risk is unknown and may contribute to racial disparities in overall life expectancy.

To determine whether incarceration in the US is associated with an increase in mortality risk and whether this association is different for Black compared with non-Black populations.

This generational retrospective cohort study used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, a nationally representative cohort of noninstitutionalized youths aged 15 to 22 years, from January 1 to December 31, 1979, with follow-up through December 31, 2018. A total of 7974 non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic non-Black participants were included. Statistical analysis was performed from October 26, 2019, to August 31, 2021.

Time-varying exposure of having experienced incarceration during follow-up.

The main outcome was time to death. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs, adjusted for baseline sociodemographic, economic, and behavioral risk factors. Models were evaluated for the full cohort and stratified by race.

Of the 7974 individuals included in our sample, 4023 (50.5%) were male, and 2992 (37.5%) identified as Black (median age, 18 [IQR, 17-20] years). During a median follow-up of 35 years (IQR, 33-37 years), 478 participants were incarcerated and 818 died. Unadjusted exposure to at least 1 incarceration between 22 and 50 years of age was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.4%-12.7%) for Black participants compared with 2.5% (95% CI, 2.1%-2.9%) for non-Black participants. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with the full cohort, time-varying exposure to incarceration was associated with an increased mortality rate (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.35; 95% CI, 0.97-1.88), a result that was not statistically significant. In the models stratified by race, incarceration was significantly associated with increased mortality among Black participants (aHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.18-2.31) but not among non-Black participants (aHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.68-2.03).

In this cohort study with 4 decades of follow-up, incarceration was associated with a higher mortality rate among Black participants but not among non-Black participants. These findings suggest that incarceration, which was prevalent and unevenly distributed, may have contributed to the lower life expectancy of the non-Hispanic Black population in the US.