Elevated Left Atrial Volume Index Predicts Incident Atrial Fibrillation After Typical Right Atrial Flutter Ablation

Incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is common after cavotricuspid isthmus (CTI) dependent atrial flutter (AFL) ablation. Risk factors for the development of AF post ablation are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to identify patients undergoing CTI ablation for AFL most likely to develop AF.

Retrospective chart review identified 114 consecutive patients without a history of AF or prior cardiac surgery who underwent typical CTI dependent AFL ablation between December 2013 to November 2018, who also had a complete preoperative transthoracic echocardiogram, and at least 1 year of follow-up at our medical center. We evaluated baseline characteristics, electrophysiology study (EPS) data and echocardiographic data for incidence of AF within 3 years.

Incident AF was identified in 46 patients (40%) during 600 + 405 days follow-up. Left atrial volume index (LAVI) was significantly greater in patients who developed AF compared to those that did not (37 ± 12.2 ml/m² vs 30 ± 13.4 ml/m², p=.004), with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve based on the LAVI of 0.7 (p = 0.004). Kaplan-Meier estimated incidence of AF was significantly greater in patients with LAVI ≥ 30 ml/m² than LAVI < 30 ml/m² (66% vs 27%, p=0.004). Risk of incident AF in patients with LAVI > 40 mL/m2 was similar to that of LAVI 30-40 ml/m2 (67% vs 63%, respectively, p=0.97). In multivariable analysis LAVI remained the sole independent predictor of incidence AF after CTI AFL ablation.

LAVI ≥ 30 ml/m² is associated with significantly increased risk of incident AF following CTI ablation for typical AFL. HATCH <2 was notably not an independent predictor of AF after AFL ablation.