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Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards.

Gemma Cremen1, Carmine Galasso2, John McCloskey3

  • 1Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London (UCL), London, UK.

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Future natural hazard risks are increasingly critical due to climate change and urbanization. This review examines methods for quantifying future risks, considering climate change, exposure, and infrastructure vulnerability.

Keywords:
Ageing infrastructureClimate changeDecision makingNatural hazardsPopulation increaseRisks

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Risk Management

Background:

  • Global change drivers like climate change, population growth, and urbanization increase natural hazard risks.
  • The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030) highlights the need for future-oriented disaster risk reduction strategies.
  • Existing risk assessments often focus on current conditions or historical data, neglecting future projections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review and synthesize efforts in modelling and quantifying future natural hazard risks.
  • To examine approaches that quantify components of future risk: climate change impacts, future exposure, and evolving vulnerabilities.
  • To provide insights for decision-makers on sustainable risk management.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic review of scientific literature on future natural hazard risk modelling.
  • Analysis of studies that quantify future climate change effects on natural hazards.
  • Examination of research on projecting future population, land use, and built environment exposure.
  • Assessment of work on the evolving physical vulnerability of infrastructure.

Main Results:

  • Identified a growing body of research focused on quantifying future natural hazard risk components.
  • Highlighted methodologies for projecting future hazard scenarios under climate change.
  • Documented approaches for assessing future exposure (population, urban development) and infrastructure vulnerability.
  • Acknowledged the challenges and limitations in current future risk modelling.

Conclusions:

  • Accurate quantification of future natural hazard risks requires integrated modelling of climate change, exposure, and vulnerability.
  • Decision-makers need robust, forward-looking risk assessments to guide sustainable development and disaster preparedness.
  • Further research is needed to overcome modelling challenges and enhance the utility of future risk assessments for policy and planning.