Predicting Neurological Outcome From Electroencephalogram Dynamics in Comatose Patients After Cardiac Arrest With...

Most cardiac arrest patients who are successfully resuscitated are initially comatose due to hypoxic-ischemic brain injury. Quantitative electroencephalography (EEG) provides valuable prognostic information. However, prior approaches largely rely on snapshots of the EEG, without taking advantage of temporal information.

We present a recurrent deep neural network with the goal of capturing temporal dynamics from longitudinal EEG data to predict long-term neurological outcomes. We utilized a large international dataset of continuous EEG recordings from 1,038 cardiac arrest patients from seven hospitals in Europe and the US. Poor outcome was defined as a Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score of 3-5, and good outcome as CPC score 0-2 at 3 to 6-months after cardiac arrest. Model performance is evaluated using 5-fold cross validation.

The proposed approach provides predictions which improve over time, beginning from an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72-0.81) at 12 hours, and reaching 0.88 (95% CI: 0.85-0.91) by 66 h after cardiac arrest. At 66 h, (sensitivity, specificity) points of interest on the ROC curve for predicting poor outcomes were (32,99)%, (55,95)%, and (62,90)%, (99,23)%, (95,47)%, and (90,62)%; whereas for predicting good outcome, the corresponding operating points were (17,99)%, (47,95)%, (62,90)%, (99,19)%, (95,48)%, (70,90)%. Moreover, the model provides predicted probabilities that closely match the observed frequencies of good and poor outcomes (calibration error 0.04).

These findings suggest that accounting for EEG trend information can substantially improve prediction of neurologic outcomes for patients with coma following cardiac arrest.