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Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh

Mossamet Kamrun Nesa1, Md Rashed Babu1, Mohammad Tareq Mamun Khan2

  • 1Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh.

Biosafety and Health
|January 3, 2022
PubMed

Insights

Forecasting COVID-19 trends in Bangladesh using the ARIMA model predicted exponential growth in cases and deaths. Recoveries were also projected to increase significantly, necessitating urgent public health strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Time Series Analysis
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic presents ongoing challenges globally.
  • Accurate forecasting of disease trends is crucial for effective public health response.
  • Bangladesh experienced a severe third wave of COVID-19 infections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries in Bangladesh.
  • To analyze trends during the third wave of the pandemic.
  • To inform public health policy and intervention strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized time series data from March 1, 2021, to July 31, 2021.
  • Applied the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting.
  • Data sourced from the Directorate General of Health Services, Bangladesh.

Main Results:

  • The ARIMA model indicated exponential growth in COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries through October 2021.
  • Confirmed cases and deaths were projected to quadruple.
  • Recoveries were forecasted to increase fivefold if trends persisted.

Conclusions:

  • The predicted surge in COVID-19 figures necessitates immediate and robust public health interventions.
  • Strategic planning and policy implementation are vital to control mass transmission.
  • The findings highlight the urgency for proactive measures in Bangladesh.

Keywords:
ARIMA modelCOVID-19Confirmed casesDeathsForecastRecoveries

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