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Excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in Brazil: 2020-2021
L B Nucci1, C C Enes1, F R Ferraz2
1Pontifical Catholic University of Campinas (PUC-Campinas), Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Campinas, SP Brazil.
Journal of Public Health (Oxford, England)
|January 3, 2022
Summary
Brazil experienced significant excess mortality from January 2020 to April 2021, with 370,055 deaths. This highlights challenges in mortality reporting systems, particularly for COVID-19 related causes.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Brazil's Mortality Information System (MIS) is crucial for tracking mortality trends.
- Understanding excess mortality is vital for public health preparedness and response.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify excess mortality in Brazil between January 2020 and April 2021.
- To analyze excess deaths by primary causes using the MIS data.
Main Methods:
- A cross-sectional study utilizing data from the Brazilian MIS.
- Autoregressive models (2015-2019) predicted expected deaths.
- Excess deaths calculated as observed minus expected deaths, categorized by 11 grouped causes.
Main Results:
- Total excess deaths: 370,055.
- Observed-to-expected death ratios: 1.14 (2020) and 1.40 (2021).
- Excess mortality concentrated in 'symptoms, signs, and abnormal findings,' 'other respiratory diseases,' and 'unspecified COVID-19.'
Conclusions:
- Excess mortality in Brazil was 1.20 times higher than the previous year during the study period.
- Increases in unspecified causes and COVID-19-associated deaths warrant caution.
- Addressing underestimation in mortality reporting systems in low- and middle-income countries remains critical.
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