A risk prediction model for dysphagia in older patients: a single-center prospective study

Surveys based on western populations have identified many risk factors for dysphagia in older people, but the potential risk factors consistent with the demographic characteristics of older, hospitalized Chinese patients require further study. This single-center prospective study aimed to determine the incidence of dysphagia in western China, and to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of dysphagia among older patients. A total of 343 inpatients (aged ≥ 65 years without dysphagia and cognitive impairment) were included. A score ≥ 2 on the Eating Assessment Tool-10 was defined as dysphagia. After a six-month follow-up, 70 (20.4%) patients were found to have dysphagia. The final model included age, wearing dentures, activities of daily living, cerebral vascular disease, coronary heart disease, and malignancy. The developed model has high predictive accuracy and can be easily implemented in daily practice.