Predicting Fall Counts Using Wearable Sensors: A Novel Digital Biomarker for Parkinson's Disease

People with Parkinson's disease (PD) experience significant impairments to gait and balance; as a result, the rate of falls in people with Parkinson's disease is much greater than that of the general population. Falls can have a catastrophic impact on quality of life, often resulting in serious injury and even death. The number (or rate) of falls is often used as a primary outcome in clinical trials on PD. However, falls data can be unreliable, expensive and time-consuming to collect. We sought to validate and test a novel digital biomarker for PD that uses wearable sensor data obtained during the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test to predict the number of falls that will be experienced by a person with PD. Three datasets, containing a total of 1057 (671 female) participants, including 71 previously diagnosed with PD, were included in the analysis. Two statistical approaches were considered in predicting falls counts: the first based on a previously reported falls risk assessment algorithm, and the second based on elastic net and ensemble regression models. A predictive model for falls counts in PD showed a mean R² value of 0.43, mean error of 0.42 and a mean correlation of 30% when the results were averaged across two independent sets of PD data. The results also suggest a strong association between falls counts and a previously reported inertial sensor-based falls risk estimate. In addition, significant associations were observed between falls counts and a number of individual gait and mobility parameters. Our preliminary research suggests that the falls counts predicted from the inertial sensor data obtained during a simple walking task have the potential to be developed as a novel digital biomarker for PD, and this deserves further validation in the targeted clinical population.