Vascular risk factors and stroke risk across the life span: A population-representative study of half a million...

The incidence of stroke in developed countries is increasing selectively in young individuals, but whether this is secondary to traditional vascular risk factors is unknown.

We used the Canadian Community Health Survey from 2000 to 2016 to create a large population-representative cohort of individuals over the age of 30 and free from prior stroke. All analyses were stratified by age decile. We linked with administrative databases to determine emergency department visits or hospitalizations for acute stroke until December 2017. We calculated time trends in risk factor prevalence (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and smoking) using meta-regression. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between vascular risk factors and stroke risk, adjusted for demographic, co-morbid, and social variables. We used competing risk regression to account for deaths and calculated population-attributable fractions. In a sensitivity analysis, we excluded those with prior heart disease or cancer.

We included 492,400 people in the analysis with 8865 stroke events over a median follow-up time of 8.3 years. Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity increased over time while smoking decreased. Associations of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity with stroke risk were progressively stronger at younger age (adjusted hazard ratio for diabetes was 4.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.95-10.28 at age 30-39, vs 1.21, 95% CI = 0.93-1.57 at age 80+), although the obesity association was attenuated with adjustment. Smoking was associated with higher risk of stroke without a gradient across age deciles, although had the greatest population-attributable fraction at younger age. The hazard ratio for stroke with multiple concurrent risk factors was much higher at younger age (adjusted hazard ratio for 3-4 risk factors was 8.60, 95% CI = 2.97-24.9 at age 30-39 vs 1.61, 95% CI = 0.88-2.97 at age 80+) and results were consistent when accounting for the competing risk of death and excluding those with prior heart disease or cancer.

Diabetes and hypertension were associated with progressively elevated relative risk of stroke in younger individuals and prevalence was increasing over time. The association of obesity with stroke was not significant after adjustment for other factors. Smoking had the greatest prevalence and population-attributable fraction for stroke at younger age. Our findings assist in understanding the relationship between vascular risk factors and stroke across the life span and planning public health measures to lower stroke incidence in the young.