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Purposes and duties in scientific modelling.

Eric Winsberg1, Stephanie Harvard2

  • 1Department of Philosophy, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA winsberg@usf.edu.

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
|January 14, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Clarifying the purpose of epidemiological models is a moral-epistemic duty. Understanding their value-laden nature and potential impact on policy decisions is crucial for ethical public health guidance.

Keywords:
COVID-19climate changemodelspublic healththeoreticaL

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Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Ethics

Background:

  • Growing public and academic interest in the philosophical underpinnings of epidemiological models.
  • Concerns regarding the influence of social, ethical values, and the adequacy of models for policy decisions.
  • Debates on the fundamental nature and intended purposes of epidemiological models, such as prediction versus projection.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the philosophical questions surrounding epidemiological models, particularly their intended purposes.
  • To argue for the moral-epistemic duties associated with clarifying model objectives and assessing their adequacy.
  • To contextualize these arguments within broader philosophical discussions on modeling.

Main Methods:

  • Philosophical analysis and argumentation.
  • Review of recent philosophical literature on epidemiological models.
  • Ethical and epistemic evaluation of model purposes and applications.

Main Results:

  • Clarifying the intended purpose of an epidemiological model is identified as a moral-epistemic duty.
  • Models possess inherent value-laden characteristics with potential for downstream harms.
  • The use of models in political decision-making can conflict with liberal values.

Conclusions:

  • Assessing model adequacy for its stated purpose is a moral-epistemic responsibility.
  • The inherent value-ladenness of models necessitates careful consideration of their ethical implications.
  • Increased dialogue on the moral significance of modeling is vital for maintaining democratic scrutiny in public health.