Realizing ambitions: A framework for iteratively assessing and communicating national decarbonization progress

Area of Science:

• Environmental science and policy
• Energy systems analysis
• Climate change mitigation

Background:

• Numerous governments have committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
• Current emissions reductions are significantly lower than projected by energy transition models.
• This discrepancy arises from the complexity of modeling techno-economic and sociopolitical factors essential for actual emissions reductions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To address the gap between net-zero ambitions and realized emissions reductions.
• To introduce a comprehensive analytical framework for assessing national capabilities in energy transitions.
• To improve the transparency and effectiveness of climate change mitigation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Proposal of the Emissions-Sustainability-Governance-Operation (ESGO) framework.
• Structured assessment of national capabilities and realization of net-zero goals.
• Analysis of net-zero modeling studies for China and the United States to illustrate the ESGO framework's application and the role of energy modeling.

Main Results:

• The ESGO framework provides a structured approach to evaluate national capacities for achieving net-zero emissions.
• Energy modeling is a critical component within the ESGO framework but requires enhancement to capture real-world complexities.
• Case studies of China and the United States highlight the practical application and limitations of current modeling approaches.

Conclusions:

• Existing energy system models often fall short in realistically assessing the capabilities needed for net-zero transitions.
• The ESGO framework offers a more holistic approach to understanding and communicating national progress toward climate goals.
• Recommendations are provided for refining energy system modeling to better support the ESGO framework and facilitate more effective net-zero implementation.