A Quantum-Like Model for Predicting Human Decisions in the Entangled Social Systems

Human-centered systems of systems, such as social networks, the Internet of Things, or healthcare systems are growingly becoming significant facets of modern life. Realistic models of human behavior in such systems play an essential role in their accurate modeling and prediction. Nevertheless, human behavior under uncertainty often violates the predictions by the conventional probabilistic models. Recently, quantum-like decision theories have shown a considerable potential to explain the contradictions in human behavior by applying quantum probabilities. But providing a quantum-like decision theory that could predict rather than describe the current state of human behavior is still one of the unsolved challenges. The fundamental contribution of this work is introducing the concept of entanglement from quantum information theory to Bayesian networks (BNs). This concept leads to an entangled quantum-like BN (QBN), in which each human is a part of the entire society. Accordingly, society's effect on the dynamic evolution of the decision-making process, which is less often considered in decision theories, is modeled by entanglement measures. To reach this aim, we introduce a quantum-like witness and find the relationship between this witness and the famous concurrence entanglement measure. The proposed predictive entangled QBN (PEQBN) is evaluated on 22 experimental tasks. Results confirm that PEQBN provides more realistic predictions of human decisions under uncertainty when compared with classical BNs and three recent quantum-like approaches.