Scenarios for urban water management futures: A systematic review

Constantly changing and evolving social, economic, political, and environmental landscapes create new uncertainties in urban water supplies. These uncertainties surrounding urban water management have been captured using various scenario analysis techniques, which have been developed to envision plausible futures. Although past review papers have conducted broad reviews on water-related issues and water management generally, there has been a lack of attention to urban water management specifically. The growing uncertainty surrounding urban water management systems necessitates a focused review specifically aimed at the use of scenarios in urban water management. Using a comprehensive typology, a systematic review is presented to empirically investigate the necessary dimensions of urban water management scenario assessment. Urban water management scenario studies that exclusively employ qualitative methods, as well as urban water management studies that employ qualitative methods with quantitative techniques, are reviewed against the comprehensive typology. By aligning the reviewed scenarios with the dimensions in the typology, some important gaps in the current literature were identified. The need for: (i) transparency in scenario development and analysis processes, (ii) inclusion of surprises and extreme events, (iii) validation efforts and (iv) considering the impact phase of a scenario process. Recommendations are proposed to address the above gaps in current urban water scenarios literature, providing a path for future scenario analysis in urban water management.