Drop-out in dual VET: why we should consider the drop-out direction when analysing drop-out

Despite high drop-out rates from vocational education and training (VET) throughout most countries and a long research tradition on potential drop-out reasons, little is known about the effects exerted on drop-out intentions by the quality of training. Furthermore, only rarely do scholars distinguish between different drop-out directions, and systematic insights on possibly differing causes are scarce. This study explores the factors influencing four directions of drop-out intention ('upwards', 'downwards', 'company change', 'occupation change'). Linear regression modelling is used to analyse survey data on the motivation, socio-demographic aspects and competency of 562 trainees as industrial management assistants in Germany and on how they perceived the training quality. The results show that different directions of drop-out intention stem from various factors, with training quality in general having the largest effect. Additionally, the findings indicate a two-tier-scheme of influence factors, 'core' and 'direction-typical' factors.