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Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19
Joshua Kiddy K Asamoah1,2, Eric Okyere3, Afeez Abidemi4
1Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, China.
Results in Physics
|January 24, 2022
Summary
This study analyzed COVID-19 control strategies in Saudi Arabia, finding social distancing most cost-effective without vaccines. Other strategies also showed effectiveness in averting infections.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Health Economics
Background:
- COVID-19 pandemic necessitates understanding cost-effectiveness of control measures.
- Previous models for Saudi Arabia did not capture multiple waves.
- Economic and health outcomes of interventions require detailed analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To formulate a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model for COVID-19 control in Saudi Arabia.
- To analyze cost-effectiveness of various control strategies.
- To identify optimal interventions for managing the COVID-19 pandemic.
Main Methods:
- Developed a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model for COVID-19.
- Applied Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive an optimal control system.
- Performed numerical simulations for cost-effectiveness analysis of fourteen strategies.
Main Results:
- The strength number indicated the model's limitation in capturing multiple COVID-19 waves.
- Social distancing (Strategy 1) emerged as the most cost-saving and effective intervention without vaccination.
- Strategies 6, 11, 12, and 14 were equally effective in averting infections.
Conclusions:
- A new compartmental model may be needed for Saudi Arabia to capture multiple COVID-19 waves.
- Social distancing is a highly effective and economical COVID-19 control strategy.
- Multiple strategies demonstrate significant potential for infection control.
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