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Stocks, flows, and risk response to pandemic data.

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  • 1Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder.

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How COVID-19 infection data is presented significantly impacts risk perception. Viewing daily new cases (flow) as decreasing lowered perceived risk more than seeing cumulative cases (stock) increase, influencing behavior.

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Public Health
  • Data Visualization

Background:

  • The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the critical role of infection data in informing policy and personal decisions.
  • Understanding how data presentation affects public perception is crucial for effective risk communication.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how presenting infection data as "stocks" (cumulative cases) versus "flows" (new daily cases) influences risk appraisal and behavioral intentions.
  • To demonstrate the impact of data visualization choices on public understanding of pandemic risk.

Main Methods:

  • Participants were shown identical COVID-19 infection data presented in two formats: cumulative cases (stock) and daily new cases (flow).
  • Risk perception and behavioral intentions (e.g., dining at restaurants) were measured after data exposure.

Main Results:

  • Participants viewing decreasing daily new cases (flow) perceived lower COVID-19 risk compared to those viewing increasing cumulative cases (stock).
  • Perceived risk directly predicted various behavioral intentions, indicating practical consequences of data presentation.

Conclusions:

  • The way pandemic data is framed (stock vs. flow) can lead to divergent conclusions about risk.
  • Data presentation choices have tangible effects on public behavior and risk assessment during health crises.