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Stocks, flows, and risk response to pandemic data
Nicholas Reinholtz1, Sam J Maglio2, Stephen A Spiller3
1Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder.
Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied
|January 24, 2022
Summary
How COVID-19 infection data is presented significantly impacts risk perception. Viewing daily new cases (flow) as decreasing lowered perceived risk more than seeing cumulative cases (stock) increase, influencing behavior.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Public Health
- Data Visualization
Background:
- The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the critical role of infection data in informing policy and personal decisions.
- Understanding how data presentation affects public perception is crucial for effective risk communication.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how presenting infection data as "stocks" (cumulative cases) versus "flows" (new daily cases) influences risk appraisal and behavioral intentions.
- To demonstrate the impact of data visualization choices on public understanding of pandemic risk.
Main Methods:
- Participants were shown identical COVID-19 infection data presented in two formats: cumulative cases (stock) and daily new cases (flow).
- Risk perception and behavioral intentions (e.g., dining at restaurants) were measured after data exposure.
Main Results:
- Participants viewing decreasing daily new cases (flow) perceived lower COVID-19 risk compared to those viewing increasing cumulative cases (stock).
- Perceived risk directly predicted various behavioral intentions, indicating practical consequences of data presentation.
Conclusions:
- The way pandemic data is framed (stock vs. flow) can lead to divergent conclusions about risk.
- Data presentation choices have tangible effects on public behavior and risk assessment during health crises.
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