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Published on: May 3, 2016
Preferences predict who commits crime among young men
Thomas Epper1,2,3,4, Ernst Fehr5,6, Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg4
1CNRS, UMR 9221-Lille Economie Management (LEM), 59000 Lille, France.
Personality preferences like risk tolerance and patience significantly predict criminal behavior in young men. Impatience and risk tolerance are key factors, even when controlling for other traits, influencing property offenses.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Behavioral Economics
- Social Science
Background:
- Understanding crime causation is crucial for effective policy design.
- Individual preferences and decision-making processes are theoretically linked to criminal activity.
- Empirical evidence on the role of preferences in criminal behavior is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically investigate the association between individual preferences and criminal behavior.
- To test whether risk tolerance, impatience, and self-interest predict crime.
- To differentiate the predictive power of preferences across various crime types.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a unique dataset combining incentivized experimental preference elicitation with official criminal records of young men.
- Controlled for a comprehensive set of covariates, including cognitive skills, socioeconomic background, and self-control problems.
- Analyzed the relationship between experimentally measured preferences and actual criminal behavior.
Main Results:
- Individual preferences, particularly impatience and risk tolerance, are strong predictors of criminal behavior.
- Crime propensities increase by 8-10 percentage points for the most risk-tolerant compared to the most risk-averse individuals.
- Preferences significantly predict property offenses, while self-control problems predict violent, drug, and sexual offenses.
Conclusions:
- Personality preferences play a significant role in explaining criminal behavior, independent of cognitive skills and socioeconomic factors.
- Risk tolerance and impatience are key preference-based determinants of criminal propensity.
- Tailoring crime prevention strategies to address specific personality traits and offense types may enhance effectiveness.
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