Decision-first modeling should guide decision making for emerging risks

An emerging risk is characterized by scant published data, rapidly changing information, and an absence of existing models that can be directly used for prediction. Analysis may be further complicated by quickly evolving decision-maker priorities and the potential need to make decisions quickly as new information comes available. To provide a forum to discuss these challenges, a virtual conference, "Decision Making for Emerging Risks," was held on June 22-23, 2021, sponsored jointly by the Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences and the Decision Analysis and Risk specialty group in the Society for Risk Analysis. Speakers reflected on the work to support decision-makers related to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as experiences in emerging risks across domains from cybersecurity, infrastructure, transportation, energy, food safety, national security, and climate change. Here, we distill the key findings to propose a set of best practice principles for a "decision-first" approach for emerging risks. These discussions underscore the importance of scoping the decision context and the shared responsibility for the development and implementation of the analysis between the analyst and the decision-maker when the context can evolve rapidly. Emerging risks may also favor simpler analytical approaches that increase transparency, ease of explanation, and ability to conduct new analyses quickly. Continued dialogue by the decision and risk analysis communities on the use and development of models for emerging risks will enhance the credibility and usefulness of these approaches.