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Did border closures slow SARS-CoV-2?
Mary A Shiraef1, Paul Friesen2, Lukas Feddern3,4
1Department of Political Science, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA. mshiraef@nd.edu.
Scientific Reports
|February 2, 2022
Summary
International border closures did not reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. National lockdowns, however, were strongly associated with a decrease in COVID-19 cases, suggesting policy effectiveness varies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- The 2020-2021 pandemic saw widespread international border closures, despite limited prior evidence on their impact on disease transmission.
- International organizations previously advised against using border closures as a pandemic policy due to unknown effects.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effectiveness of international border closures in mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
- To compare the impact of international border closures with national-level movement restrictions on disease transmission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the COVID Border Accountability Project (COBAP) database of international closures, converted to time-series cross-sectional data.
- Employed matching techniques and controlled for domestic lockdowns using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) data.
Main Results:
- Found no statistical evidence supporting the efficacy of international border closures in reducing SARS-CoV-2 spread.
- Observed a significant association between national-level lockdowns and a reduction in COVID-19 cases.
Conclusions:
- International border closures were not found to be an effective measure against SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
- National lockdowns demonstrated a strong association with reduced disease spread, highlighting differential policy impacts.
- Further research is needed on the comparative effects and unintended consequences of border closures versus lockdowns.
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