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International border closures did not reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. National lockdowns, however, were strongly associated with a decrease in COVID-19 cases, suggesting policy effectiveness varies.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Policy
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

  • The 2020-2021 pandemic saw widespread international border closures, despite limited prior evidence on their impact on disease transmission.
  • International organizations previously advised against using border closures as a pandemic policy due to unknown effects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the effectiveness of international border closures in mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
  • To compare the impact of international border closures with national-level movement restrictions on disease transmission.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the COVID Border Accountability Project (COBAP) database of international closures, converted to time-series cross-sectional data.
  • Employed matching techniques and controlled for domestic lockdowns using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) data.

Main Results:

  • Found no statistical evidence supporting the efficacy of international border closures in reducing SARS-CoV-2 spread.
  • Observed a significant association between national-level lockdowns and a reduction in COVID-19 cases.

Conclusions:

  • International border closures were not found to be an effective measure against SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
  • National lockdowns demonstrated a strong association with reduced disease spread, highlighting differential policy impacts.
  • Further research is needed on the comparative effects and unintended consequences of border closures versus lockdowns.