Development of a nomogram to predict prognosis in ovarian cancer: a SEER-based study

Ovarian cancer remains the most lethal gynecologic malignancy. In this study, we aimed to identify the specific risk factors affecting overall survival (OS) and develop a nomogram for prognostic prediction of ovarian cancer patients based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Information from the SEER database on ovarian cancer between 2004 and 2016 was screened and retrieved. Cases were randomly divided into the training cohort hand the validation cohort at a 7:3 ratio. The prognostic effects of individual variables on survival were evaluated via Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model using data from the training cohort. A nomogram was formulated to predict the 3- and 5-year OS rates of patients with ovarian cancer, and then validated both in the training cohort and the validation cohort.

A total of 28,375 patients were selected from 75,921 samples (19,862 in training cohort and 8,513 in validation cohort). Cox regression analysis identified race, age laterality, histology, stage, grade, surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and marital status as independent risk factors for ovarian cancer prognosis. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate analysis and validated using an internal bootstrap resampling approach, which demonstrated a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.752, 95% CI: 0.746-0.758 in the training cohort, 0.755, 95% CI: 0.746-0.764).

We developed a nomogram valuable for accurate prediction of 3- and 5-year OS rates of ovarian cancer patients based on individual characteristics.