Endogenous oestradiol and progesterone as predictors of oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence

High-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) is the main aetiological factor for the development of cervical cancer. While nearly 70% of HR-HPV infections are cleared within 12 months, in the remainder of women they persist and can progress into cervical cancer. Oestradiol and progesterone have been shown to be involved in the development and progression of cervical cancer. The objective of this study was to investigate, for the first time, whether diurnal oestradiol and progesterone are also involved in HR-HPV persistence - before cervical cancer develops.

A total of N = 39 women between 18 and 31 years of age were investigated. All were nulliparous and regular users of combined oral contraceptives. Presence of HR-HPV was determined by cervical swabs. Salivary oestradiol and progesterone were measured upon awakening and at 11 am, 2 pm, and 5 pm. All HR-HPV positive women were re-tested in terms of HR-HPV status 12 months later.

HR-HPV positive women had significantly higher morning (p = .007, partial eta² = .221) and daily oestradiol levels (p < .001, partial eta² = .442) when compared to HR-HPV negative women. In addition, those with persistent HR-HPV 12 months later had significantly elevated morning (p = .005, partial eta² = .534) and daily (p = .027, partial eta² = .346) oestradiol. Progesterone was found to be unrelated to HR-HPV.

Oestradiol was positively linked to HR-HPV presence and persistence. Provided that these findings are replicated, regular monitoring of oestradiol levels may prove useful in identifying women who are at risk of developing cervical cancer.