COVID-19 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Scenario analysis through fuzzy cognitive map modeling

The COVID-19 crisis has immensely impacted the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development worldwide. This research aims at providing a policy response to support achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) taking the COVID-19 long-term implications into account. To do so, a qualitative analytical method was employed in the following four steps. First, a fuzzy cognitive map was developed to specify causal-effect links of the interdependent SDGs in Iran as a developing country in the Middle East. Second, potential effects of the pandemic on the SDGs achievement were analyzed. Third, five strategies were formulated, including green management, sustainable food systems, energizing the labor market, inclusive education, and supporting research and technology initiatives in the energy sector. And finally, different scenarios corresponding to the five proposed strategies were tested based on the identified interconnections among the SDGs. The analysis showed that applying each of the five considered strategies or their combination would mitigate the effect of COVID-19 on the SDGs only in case of a medium pandemic activation level. Moreover, implementing a single strategy with a high activation level leads to better outcomes on the SDGs rather than applying a combination of strategies in low or medium activation levels during the pandemic situation. The provided insights support stakeholders and policy-makers involved in the post-COVID-19 recovery action plan towards implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.