Risk Prediction Model for Uncontrolled Hypertension in Chinese Community

Uncontrolled hypertension rate was still high across China. This study develops and validates an index to help quantify the combination of socio-behavioral aspects to screen high-risk patients in uncontrolled hypertension in Chinese primary care.

A cross-sectional study included 1,039 of patients with hypertension in the Chinese community. We assessed independent risk factors of uncontrolled blood pressure (defined as having a blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg, even with antihypertensive therapy) and develop a risk prediction model.

Among the 1,039 patients (53.9% male, the average age was 61 ± 13 years), 452 (43.5%) were uncontrolled hypertensive. Multivariable analysis showed that worker (odds ratio, OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.46-2.69), no health insurance (OR: 3.47, 95% CI: 2.08-5.80), non-marital status (OR: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.35-3.27), and other socio-behavioral aspects were independent risk factors of uncontrolled hypertension, which were included the final prediction model (C-static: 0.781). With internal validation by the bootstrap method, the risk score showed good discriminating ability and predicting ability for the incidence of uncontrolled hypertension (C-static: 0.771).

This study showed that nearly half of the patients suffered from uncontrolled hypertension in the Chinese community. We established a prediction model with good predictability to help quantify the combination of socio-behavioral aspects and screen high-risk patients with uncontrolled hypertension.