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Enriching the Study Population for Ischemic Stroke Therapeutic Trials Using a Machine Learning Algorithm.

Jenish Maharjan1, Yasha Ektefaie1, Logan Ryan1

  • 1Dascena, Inc., Houston, TX, United States.

Frontiers in Neurology
|February 11, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Machine learning algorithms can predict near-term ischemic stroke risk in hospitalized patients. This aids in identifying high-risk individuals for clinical trials and stroke prevention treatments.

Keywords:
anticoagulant therapyartificial intelligenceclinical trialmachine learningstroke prediction

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Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Medical Informatics
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Stroke is a leading global cause of mortality.
  • Clinical trials for stroke therapies require efficient patient identification for timely enrollment.
  • Machine learning (ML) offers potential to enhance prediction of stroke risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate a machine learning algorithm (MLA) for predicting ischemic stroke risk.
  • To identify hospitalized patients at high risk of stroke within a one-year timeframe.
  • To improve patient selection for stroke prevention and treatment clinical trials.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study of 41,970 ischemic stroke patient encounters.
  • Utilized electronic health records to train a gradient boosted MLA (XGBoost).
  • Predicted ischemic stroke occurrence from 1 day to 1 year post-encounter.

Main Results:

  • XGBoost achieved high performance with specificity 0.793, PPV 0.194, NPV 0.985, and AUROC 0.88.
  • Logistic Regression and multilayer perceptron models showed comparable AUROCs (0.862).
  • Key predictors included prior stroke, age, and mean systolic blood pressure.

Conclusions:

  • MLAs can accurately predict near-term ischemic stroke risk in hospitalized individuals.
  • This risk stratification tool can optimize clinical trial design for stroke prevention.
  • High-risk patient identification enhances potential benefit from novel stroke treatments.